Latest from BCA Research

Higher oil prices threaten the global economy, warranting an underweight stance on equities. Over the long haul, industrial metals will fare better than crude.

We discuss the takeaways from this week’s central bank meetings amidst the unfolding energy price shock.

Forced to choose between growth and inflation, the Fed will save growth and the stock market rather than the 2 percent inflation target and the bond market.

The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend.

This screener report builds on the macro risk portfolio framework developed in the US Equity Strategy and Equity Analyzer collaboration published on 9 March 2026. Here, we apply the framework to analyze recent Middle East hostilities and identify how bottom-up equity positioning should adapt as the conflict evolves, which we analyzed in a US Equity Strategy report published on 16 March 2026.

Bank Credit Analyst

Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary group, the Basij. Meanwhile, the Gulf States reported more interceptions of drones and missiles from Iran.

The market narrative around the Gulf conflict rests on three flawed myths: the UAE is not “finished,” Iran cannot close Hormuz indefinitely, and the war is not fundamentally about China.

Our March 13 tactical insight into the ongoing Third Gulf War has incited a lot of client feedback.

Bank Credit Analyst

The conflict in the Middle East persists as the US and Israel continue their strikes, and so does Iran’s retaliation with drones and ballistic missiles against the Gulf States. The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially closed, despite some ships being allowed to traverse.

Middle East tensions sparked a surge in volatility, yet the S&P 500 decline has been comparatively modest. Across asset classes, moves seem related to risk preferences and near-term inflation concerns. Within equities, some cyclicals are under pressure, but the equity market’s growth view has been resilient, while the inflation view has climbed.