The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through November, returning 1.13%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 0.08%. Our US High Quality SMID portfolio experienced a decline in performance this month. The portfolio returned -2.27%, underperforming its MSCI US Small and Mid Cap benchm...
We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire....
Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place....
The Kingdom faces a troika of global factors in the next 12-18 months: (1) US policy rates will be cut considerably; (2) the US dollar will depreciate significantly; and (3) crude prices will remain low. How should investors position themselves in this market?...
The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund ver...
In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks....
Commodity market analysis usually focuses heavily on supply-demand balances. Yet in this framework piece, we argue that reported balances are an overrated gauge of underlying commodity price trends....
We remain bullish on the alpha-generating potential of Vietnamese stocks over the medium and long term. But our negative outlook on global/EM beta makes us bearish on this bourse in absolute terms over the medium term....
On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is taking control of the Fed in 2026 and, together, they will look to re-l...
