Latest from BCA Research

The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets.

This week, our screeners explore opportunities arising from Europe’s electrification, identify high-quality Rare Earth plays, and propose a portfolio to hedge against a major global conflict.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consumer-facing and cyclically exposed subindustries. In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Special Report

Asset allocators must pay attention not only to the magnitude of an asset’s expected returns but also to its shape, a concept technically known as skew. Adding skew into our analysis moves our equity allocation up to neutral while bonds remain at underweight. Plus: a new tactical trade is to buy sugar.

Special Report

China's anti-involution policies will not end deflation or boost corporate profits on a sustainable basis. Authorities will be reluctant to cut industrial capacity as doing so would lead to layoffs. Consequently, production will continue to exceed demand, and price deflation will persist.

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.

This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets.

Private Credit outsiders are skeptical, insiders are believers—but are becoming nervous now. In the highlight of this Quarterly Report, we dig beneath the surface to uncover the buried bodies in Private AND Public Credit. The ghosts of 2020-2021 loan originations are catching up with investors.

The rush to build AI infrastructure is based on a false premise: that there are significant advantages to being the first to come to market.